Does a Political Carbon Emission Cycle in China exist?

Authors: SHEN Zekai; HE He; JOHN Boland

Date: 2022

Abstract:

In China, carbon emissions are not only related to economic growth but also affected by politics. This article collects carbon dioxide emission data and the date of the Provincial Communist Party Congress(PCPC) from 2006 to 2019 in 283 prefecturelevel cities in China to study how the PCPC impacts carbon emissions. Using the Fixed-Effects Model, we find that the carbon emissions in prefecture level cities form cyclical fluctuations within the convening of the PCPC. To be specific, the amount of carbon emissions has decreased by 253.4 thousand tons on average in the first year before the opening of the local communist party congress compared with that in the third year after the opening of the local communist party congress. Furthermore, we find that the political carbon emission cycle does not belong to the environmental political business cycle and co-exists with the political business cycle. These results suggest that carbon emissions reduction has become as important as economic growth in the cadre evaluation system nowadays.

Keywords:

Political Business Cycle Theory, Carbon Dioxide emission, Promotion incentive for local officials, Fixed-Effects model

Current Status:

Submitted to Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Submission Experience

• Submitted to Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

  Date: 2022-11 —— 2023-01

  Results: Rejected (Three Review Comments)

  Editor Comments: I read your paper with great interest because I think the research question is important and novel. I thus sent the paper to three experts in the field. While all agree that the topic is worth investigating, they also raise several issues that are difficult to address. I also consulted one editorial member of JEEM to seek more comments. Unfortunately, s/he is also not positive. After going through the referee reports and reading the paper one more time, I decide to reject the paper.